Friday, May 18, 2012

Rising Home Prices: Coming to a Market Near You


April’s Price Rise Makes a Three-Month Streak

Nationally, housing prices have bottomed and are on the rise. Asking prices on for-sale homes were 1.9% higher in April than one quarter ago. A 0.5% month-over-month rise in April, on top of month-over-month price increases in March and February, makes for three months in a row of rising asking prices, after adjusting for typical seasonal trends. In fact, prices have been stable or rising for the past eight months, except for a dip in December 2011. This marks a new milestone: asking prices were 0.2% higher in April than a year ago. Before April, prices were still falling year-over-year.
Trulia Price Monitor - Line Graph - April 2012
Not only are rising prices starting to look like a real trend: they’re also coming to a market near you — if they haven’t already. Asking prices increased year-over-year in 44 out of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, with Miami and Phoenix leading the charge.
Why these markets? One factor is job growth, which boosts housing demand. Miami, Phoenix, Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills (suburban Detroit) and Denver all saw strong employment gains in the past year. Another factor is the big price declines after the bubble, which attracted house hunters and investors searching for bargains to those markets. Most of the metros with the largest price increases in the last year had huge price declines during the bust, including Phoenix, Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills and the four Florida metros in the top ten. But among the metros with the largest price declines over the past year, only three–Sacramento, Las Vegas and Fresno–had huge overall price drops after the bubble burst.

Note: Rankings based on the year-over-year changes in asking price among the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas.
Seattleites, take heart: in the most recent quarter, most of the metros with year-over-over price declines have turned around. Prices rose quarter over quarter in 92 of the 100 largest metros, including in Seattle, Las Vegas and Atlanta.

Rents Keep Marching Upward

Rental demand remains strong, with rents rising 5.6% nationally year over year. One reason for this continuous climb is job growth, as the metros with the largest rent increases tend to have fast job growth, like San Francisco and San Jose. But another reason why rents keep going up is the decline in homeownership: foreclosures forced some owners to become renters, while tight credit and the weak job market put homeownership out of reach for many others. The result: rents have risen even while prices were falling, and now that prices are rising, rents are rising even faster.
Note: Rankings based on the year-over-year changes in asking rents among the largest U.S. metropolitan areas.

Let’s Get Local: What About Prices and Rents in My Neighborhood?

Even within a metro area, neighborhoods have their own price and rent trends. This month we looked at trends within five large metros: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington DC and the San Francisco Bay Area.
In the New York area, prices rose year over year in Brooklyn, Manhattan and Staten Island, while declining in the rest of the region. But rents rose everywhere – both in the City and suburban areas.
Note: In these tables, asterisks (*) denote areas where sample sizes are too small to report year-over-year changes in rents.
In Los Angeles, asking prices increased only in the downtown area. Prices fell elsewhere throughout the region, most of all in Long Beach. As in New York, though, rents rose throughout the region, except for Long Beach, with downtown LA experiencing both the biggest increases in prices and rents.

In Chicago, asking prices fell in all areas, but the northern and southern suburbs fared worst.

In the Washington DC area, prices rose throughout the region, though least in Prince George’s County, MD.
Note: Fairfax county includes Falls Church and Fairfax cities. Prince William county includes Manassas and Manassas Park cities.
Finally, in the San Francisco Bay Area, rents were on a tear, rising more than 10% in San Francisco itself, San Mateo county and Alameda county. But asking prices were up in San Francisco while down in Oakland.

What patterns emerge? Among these large metros, the most central urban areas tend to have larger price increases (or smaller declines) than suburban areas, but there are exceptions – and there’s no general pattern across the US overall. In the Atlanta region, prices year on year were down less (-2.9%) in Atlanta (404 area code) than in the suburban areas (-5.5%, outside the 404 area code). However, in the Seattle region, prices year on year were down more (-6.6%) in Seattle itself (206 area code) – than on the Eastside (-5.2%, 425 area code). But what the quarter-over-quarter trend tells us is that it’s going to get harder to find neighborhoods where prices are declining.
Will the rise in asking prices and rents continue next month? Check back in on Tuesday, June 5, 2012 at 10AM ET to find out when we release the findings from May.
www.OnlyFloridaHomes.com
Diamond Award Winner Aaron Eyerman, Broker of Blue Water Realty inc of SW FL is considered a master listing agent, His marketing and international events have built a strong network. Eyerman has recently help a large group based out of Toronto, Canada secure a very unique property, Eyerman will be visiting Toronto Canada in the near future to host a local investment strategy seminar.
aaron@bluewaterrealtyofswfl.com

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Cape Coral and Fort Myers 1Q homes sales up, inventory down

1Q sales up, inventory down
 May 9, 2012 – Median existing single-family home prices are firming in many metropolitan areas, while improving sales and declining inventory are creating more balanced conditions, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The median existing single-family home price rose in 74 out of 146 (59 percent) of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in first quarter 2012 compared to the same quarter in 2011; 72 areas had price declines. Only one quarter earlier – the fourth quarter of 2011 – only 29 areas (20 percent) had a year-over-year gain. The numbers are based on closings.

“Home prices are more volatile than normal because of sudden upswings in buyer activity in some localities, and also are affected by the prevalence of distressed sales,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Home prices lag sales activity because the transactions were negotiated mostly in the previous quarter. Given the steadily dwindling supply of inventory and notably higher listing prices that are being negotiated today, prices are expected to show further improvements in the near future.”

Yun says housing inventory is a big part of the story.

“We now have broad shortages of lower priced homes in much of the country, with very tight supply in Western states for homes through the middle price ranges,” he says. “This is good news for many sellers who wish to list now or for those waiting for prices to improve.”

At the end of the first quarter, 2.37 million existing homes were available for sale – 21.8 percent below first quarter 2011 when 3.03 million homes were on the market. There has been a sustained downtrend since inventories set a record of 4.04 million in the summer of 2007.

The national median existing single-family home price was $158,100 in the first quarter – 0.4 percent below $158,700 in the first quarter of 2011. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales that sold at deep discounts – accounted for 32 percent of first quarter sales; they were 38 percent a year earlier.

Total existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in the first quarter from a downwardly revised 4.37 million in the fourth quarter, and were 5.3 percent above the 4.34 million level during the first quarter of 2011 when sales spiked.

“This is the highest first quarter sales pace since 2007,” Yun says. “With strong market fundamentals, total home sales this year should rise 7 to 10 percent.”

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc. in Miami, said there are more opportunities in today’s market. “Historically favorable housing affordability conditions are making it easier for buyers to enter the market despite the unnecessarily tight credit conditions,” he says. “Housing supply and demand are roughly balanced with overall housing supply at the lowest level in six years, putting sellers on an even footing with buyers in most markets.”

“Qualifying incomes are well below median incomes in most of the country, which means home buyers generally can stay well within their means,” Yun says. “For example, a buyer in Indianapolis making a 10 percent downpayment would need an annual income of $24,000 to purchase a median-priced home, while in Seattle it would be $55,300. For now, buyers are facing an extraordinarily advantageous situation if they can obtain a mortgage.”

The national median family income was $61,000 in the first quarter. However, to purchase a home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent downpayment would only need a $34,700 income. With a 10 percent downpayment the required income would be $32,900, while with 20 percent down, the income drops to $29,300.

First-time buyers purchased 33 percent of homes in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter; they were 32 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

The share of all-cash home purchases in the first quarter was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in the fourth quarter; they were 33 percent in the first quarter of 2011. Investors, drawn by bargain prices and who make up the bulk of cash purchasers, accounted for 22 percent of all transactions in the first quarter, up from 19 percent in the fourth quarter; they were 21 percent a year ago.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 52 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $157,200 in the first quarter, which is up 3.4 percent from the first quarter of 2011. Eighteen metros showed increases in their median condo price from a year ago and 34 areas had declines.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 8.6 percent in the first quarter and are 6.6 percent above the first quarter of 2011. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 3.2 percent to $226,300 in the first quarter from a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 5.5 percent in the first quarter and are 11.7 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest increased 0.8 percent to $125,300 in the first quarter from the same quarter in 2011.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter and are 4.1 percent above the first quarter in 2011. The median existing single-family home price in the South rose 1.2 percent to $143,600 in the first quarter from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 5.9 percent in the first quarter and are 1.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West slipped 0.9 percent to $196,200 in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2011.

© 2012 Florida Realtors®

www.OnlyFloridaHomes.com


Diamond Award Winner Aaron Eyerman, Broker of Blue Water Realty inc of SW FL is considered a master listing agent, His marketing and international events have built a strong network. Eyerman has recently help a large group based out of Toronto, Canada secure a very unique property, Eyerman will be visiting Toronto Canada in the near future to host a local investment strategy seminar.

aaron@bluewaterrealtyofswfl.com

Thursday, May 3, 2012

March Pending Home Sales Rise, Market Recovering

Pending home sales increased in March and are well above a year ago, another signal the housing market is recovering, according to the National Association of REALTORS.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 4.1 percent to 101.4 in March from an upwardly revised 97.4 in February and is 12.8 percent above March 2011 when it was 89.9. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

The index is now at the highest level since April 2010 when it reached 111.3.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said 2012 is expected to be a year of recovery for housing. "First quarter sales closings were the highest first quarter sales in five years. The latest contract signing activity suggests the second quarter will be equally good," he says.

"The housing market has clearly turned the corner. Rising sales are bringing down inventory and creating much more balanced conditions around the county, which means home prices will be rising in more areas as the year progresses," Yun says.

The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.8 percent to 78.2 in March but is 21.1 percent above March 2011. In the Midwest the index declined 0.9 percent to 93.3 but is 16.9 percent higher than a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 5.9 percent to an index of 114.1 in March and are 10.6 percent above March 2011. In the West the index increased 8.7 percent in March to 108.0 and is 9.0 percent above a year ago.

The National Association of REALTORS, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

Foreclosures Down to 69,000 in March, Inventory Also Down





Year-over-year, the number of completed foreclosures decreased about 19 percent to 69,000 in March 2012 compared to 85,000 in March 2011, according to CoreLogic’s National Foreclosure Report for March. Month-over-month, with the number of completed foreclosures in February 2012 at 66,000, foreclosures increased about 4.5 percent in March 2012.

On a quarterly basis, foreclosures decreased to 198,000 in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 232,000 through the same quarter a year ago.
Overall, since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.5 million completed foreclosures.
In addition to the yearly and quarterly decreases in completed foreclosures, the number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by nearly 6 percent, or 100,000, in March 2012 compared to the year before.
“Since the foreclosure inventory is also coming down, this suggests that loan modifications, short sales, deeds-in-lieu are increasingly being used as an alternative to foreclosures to clear distressed assets in our communities. This is what was envisioned with the recent National Foreclosure Settlement, and can often be a better outcome for both borrowers and investors,” said Anand Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic.
Out of all homes with a mortgage, approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4 percent were in the national foreclosure inventory as of March 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5 percent, the same month a year ago, and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in the prior month of February.
Delinquencies are also down, with the share of borrowers nationally that were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payment, including homes in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) assets, dropping to 7 percent in March 2012 from 7.5 percent a year ago, and remained unchanged compared to the prior month.
“The overall delinquency level was unchanged in March, remaining at its lowest point since July 2009,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.
The distressed clearing ratio for March was up at 0.81 compared to 0.76 in February 2012. A higher ratio indicates a faster pace of REO sales relative to the pace of completed foreclosures.
As for individual states, strides were more notably made with non-judicial states.
“Non-judicial foreclosure markets like Nevada, Arizona, and California are experiencing significant improvements in their shares of delinquent borrowers. Some judicial foreclosure states are also improving, like Florida, but not to the extent of non-judicial markets,” said Fleming.
Year-over-year, the percentage of 90-plus delinquencies in Nevada decreased 3.7, while in Arizona the drop was 3.2 percent and in California 2.2 percent. Judicial state Florida saw a 1 percent decrease in its percentage of delinquent borrowers.
Highest % of Foreclosure Inventory
Florida (12.1 percent)
New Jersey (6.6 percent)
Illinois (5.4 percent)
Nevada (4.9 percent)
New York (4.9 percent)
Lowest % of Foreclosure Inventory
Wyoming (0.7 percent)
Alaska (0.8 percent)
North Dakota (0.8 percent)
Nebraska (1.1 percent)
South Dakota (1.4 percent)
Five States with the Most Foreclosures
(Over 12 months ending in March 2012)
California (150,000)
Florida (92,000)
Michigan (62,000)
Arizona (58,000)
Texas (57,000)
The five states account for 49.1 percent of all completed foreclosures nationally.
CoreLogic is a provider of consumer, financial and property information, analytics, and services to businesses and the government.

05/01/2012 BY: ESTHER CHO

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Cape Coral and Fort Myers Florida Real Estate Bidding Wars

Bidding wars catch buyers off guard

May 1, 2012 – Homebuyers are unexpectedly finding more competition this spring in landing their dream home. Bidding wars are increasingly being reported in markets across the country, from California to Florida, The Wall Street Journal reports.

“It’s a little surprising because we thought bidding wars were done with,” Andy Aley, a home shopper in Seattle said. Aley says he was outbid on a home earlier this year, even though he offered to pay $23,000 above the listing price and also waive inspections and other closing conditions.

Homebuyers are frustrated and caught off-guard about the bidding wars re-emerging, real estate professionals report.

“We’re writing a record number of offers, but we’re not seeing a record number of closings and that’s because it’s so competitive,” Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin Corp., told The Wall Street Journal.

Why are things getting so competitive? Many housing markets are seeing a drastic decrease in the number of homes listed for sale, leaving homebuyers with fewer options and more bidding on the same house. Housing analysts say the shortage in supply is from sellers unwilling to take much less for their home than what they originally paid for it and pulling homes off the market. Also, a surge in investors who snatch up homes in bulk in all-cash deals has made the market competitive.

“The bidding wars caused by tight inventory provide the latest evidence that housing demand is starting to pick up after a six-year-long slump,” The Wall Street Journal reports.

National Association of Realtors® latest pending sales report seems to confirm the trend. Pending sales in March reached their highest level in nearly two years and are up 12.8 percent from one year earlier.

Source: “Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back,” The Wall Street Journal (April 27, 2012)

© Copyright 2012 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

www.OnlyFloridaHomes.com


Diamond Award Winner Aaron Eyerman, Broker of Blue Water Realty inc of SW FL is considered a master listing agent, His marketing and international events have built a strong network. Eyerman has recently help a large group based out of Toronto, Canada secure a very unique property, Eyerman will be visiting Toronto Canada in the near future to host a local investment strategy seminar.

aaron@bluewaterrealtyofswfl.com